Why every Turkish economic figure comes in two versions

Why Turkish output needs two measures

TurkStat's annual accounts for 2025, released on 31 August 2026, put gross domestic product at 63 trillion 240 billion lira at current prices, 41.6% more than in 2024. The same release carries a chain-linked volume index with 2009 as its reference year, which removes the effect of prices, and on that measure output rose 3.7%. The difference between the two figures is almost entirely price change. The IMF's series for the GDP deflator shows prices across the whole economy rising 34.0% in 2025, 59.3% in 2024 and 95.5% in 2022, a year in which real output grew 5.4%.

Converting to dollars adds a second layer of method. TurkStat divides lira output per head, 714,682 lira in 2025, by an average dollar exchange rate based on imports and arrives at 18,103 dollars. The World Bank's figure for the same year is 18,599 dollars a head, on a total of about 1.6 trillion dollars. The two institutions are converting the same economy with different rates, and the choice moves the answer by nearly 500 dollars a head. At purchasing power parity the World Bank puts 2025 output at 45,288 dollars a head, more than twice the market-rate figure.

On the production side, manufacturing contributed 15.6% of 2025 output at current prices, wholesale and retail trade with vehicle repair 12.9%, and real estate activities 9.2%. Construction grew 11.0% in volume over the year and agriculture, forestry and fishing shrank 8.5%. On the spending side, household consumption made up 54.4% of GDP, government consumption 13.9% and gross fixed capital formation 30.7%. Exports came to 24.7% of GDP and imports to 25.0%.

The income side shows how wages kept pace with prices. Compensation of employees rose 40.0% in lira in 2025 and operating surplus and mixed income rose 41.3%. The share of wages in gross value added slipped from 36.9% in 2024 to 36.6% in 2025, and the share of net operating surplus rose from 43.3% to 44.3%.

How Türkiye moved from state plans to open trade

The republic inherited an economy the Wikipedia account describes as stagnating from the eighteenth century, after the Ottoman state lost territory in central and eastern Europe and its land routes lost the spice and silk trade to new sea routes. Late in the empire the Committee of Union and Progress ran a National Economy programme, Millî İktisat, which involved expropriating Christian property and removing Christians from economic life, and the same account records it as a lasting influence on the republic's political economy.

After 1923 the new state abolished the economic privileges held by foreigners and nationalised their means of production and the railways. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey was founded in 1930 as a privileged joint-stock company holding the sole right to issue notes. The Wikipedia account divides the republic's economic record into four eras:

The fourth era began under Prime Minister Turgut Özal, whose administration devalued the lira, liberalised trade and deepened the financial sector. It produced an export-oriented business class, and it also produced volatile inflation and recurrent fiscal crises through the 1990s, a decade the Wikipedia history of Türkiye associates with coalition government, devaluation and inflation. The customs union with the European Union, ratified in 1995, created a free trade area, and Turkish manufacturers used it to raise industrial production for export while investment from the European Union came the other way.

A deep banking recession in 2001 led to structural reforms under a stringent IMF programme. Output quadrupled between 2001 and 2013, and Türkiye became an upper-middle-income country on exports of cars, textiles and appliances, with a construction and consumer credit expansion alongside them. The currency was reset during that stretch: the New Turkish lira was introduced on 1 January 2005 and renamed the Turkish lira on 1 January 2009, with new notes and coins. Growth resumed from 2009 to 2013 after the global financial crisis and gave way to stagnation and recession between 2014 and 2020. The Wikipedia account describes monetary policy from 2018 as lowering interest rates through repeated currency interventions while inflation climbed, and it connects that policy to a sharp fall in the lira and an economic crisis.

What inflation did to wages and savings

The IMF's Article IV consultation, concluded on 13 February 2026, sets out the recent years in one table.

The last row shows how the lira was lent. In 2022 the central bank lent to banks at a rate that, once inflation is subtracted, came to minus 59.4%, so borrowing in lira and repaying later cost far less in real terms than it appeared to. Broad money grew 59.2% that year and 70.1% in 2023, and credit to the private sector grew 54.7% and then 54.0%. Real growth stayed positive throughout. The economy expanded 5.4% in 2022 while prices nearly doubled on the deflator.

Disinflation followed. The IMF records annual inflation falling from 49.4% in September 2024 to 30.9% in December 2025, and credits fiscal consolidation, restrained incomes policy and tight monetary policy. Its staff expected inflation of 23% at the end of 2026 and growth of 4.2% that year. The Executive Board judged inflation still "well above target", called for tighter policy and asked for a simplified framework centred on the policy rate, more central bank independence, currency intervention limited to smoothing volatility and, over time, a more flexible exchange rate. It also noted that the gradual approach had weighed on the financial sector and slowed productivity growth.

Wages are set in lira against that background. The minimum wage was 28,075 lira from 1 January 2025, equal to 652.41 dollars at the time. The daily median income in 2022 was 19.94 dollars at purchasing power parity. The IMF board asked for wage policy to be fully aligned with the inflation target.

Where Turkish depositors keep their money

Much of the country's savings sits outside the lira. In October 2021 foreign currency deposits held by citizens and residents in Turkish banks came to 234 billion dollars, around half of all deposits. The banking system held more than 800 billion dollars of assets in 2020, and in January 2021 it ran 48 banks with 9,880 branches in Türkiye and 71 abroad.

Gold is the other store. The Istanbul Gold Exchange was established in 1995, the year the Istanbul Stock Exchange moved to its building in İstinye; the stock exchange itself traces to the Ottoman Stock Exchange of 1866 and was reorganised in its present form at the start of 1986. Turkish mines produced 42 tonnes of gold in 2020, from deposits that include Kışladağ at 17 million ounces and Çöpler at 10 million. In October 2024 the central bank held 85 billion dollars in foreign currency reserves and 67.4 billion dollars in gold, with official reserve assets of 159.8 billion dollars. The IMF expected in February 2026 that depositor confidence and high gold prices would keep reserves at around 80% of its adequacy metric, and it named "still high FX liquidity risks" as the thing to watch.

What Turkish factories make for export

TurkStat's business register counted 1,086,670 companies in November 2023. Manufacturing accounted for 241,362 of them, wholesale trade for 197,476 and services for 187,325. The main industries are automobiles, electronics, textiles, construction, steel, mining and food processing, and machinery and manufactured goods lead the merchandise exports. Vehicle makers include TEMSA, Otokar and BMC, and Togg builds only electric cars. Arçelik, Vestel and Beko make consumer electronics and household appliances.

Beyond the customs union with the European Union, Türkiye has signed free-trade agreements with 22 countries. In 2016 its main trading partners were the European Union, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and China, most of them large both as buyers and as suppliers. Construction and contracting groups such as Enka, Rönesans Holding and Tekfen form a further branch of Turkish industry.

Military production is a separate branch, run by government companies including Turkish Aerospace Industries, ASELSAN, HAVELSAN, ROKETSAN and MKE. Spending on research and development rose from 0.47% of GDP in 2000 to 1.40% in 2023. Television drama also sells abroad, and the Wikipedia account of Türkiye lists it among the country's exports by both profit and public relations.

The external balance has narrowed. The IMF puts the current account deficit at 5.0% of GDP in 2022 and 1.4% in 2025, and gross external debt at 34.5% of GDP in 2025 against 51.7% in 2021. TurkStat's 2025 accounts show export volumes falling 0.6% and import volumes rising 4.6%. A domestic emissions trading system, set up in response to the European Union's carbon border adjustment mechanism, was in a pilot phase in 2026; the Wikipedia account notes that coal plants built in the 2010s hold it back.

Why tourism is counted in dollars

TurkStat publishes tourism income in dollars, so this one series sits outside the lira arithmetic of the national accounts. Tourism revenue reached 65.23 billion dollars in 2025, 6.8% more than in 2024, from 63,917,057 departing visitors. Of those, 11,175,394, or 17.5%, were Turkish citizens living abroad, and they came mainly to see relatives and friends: 63.4% gave that as their reason, while 67.7% of all visitors came for sightseeing, leisure, sport and culture. Overnight visitors spent 100 dollars a night on average and citizens resident abroad 64 dollars. Package tours made up 18.2 billion dollars of the spending and individual spending 46.25 billion.

The flow also runs outward. Turkish residents made 11,897,355 trips abroad in 2025 and spent 9.6 billion dollars, 24% more than in 2024, at 807 dollars a trip. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue fell 2.6% on a year earlier to 15.87 billion dollars and visitor numbers fell 5.1%, while outward spending rose 7.4%.

The count depends on the definition. UNWTO's World Tourism Barometer, as cited by the government's investment office, recorded 60.6 million international arrivals in 2024 and receipts of 56.3 billion dollars; TurkStat's definition includes citizens resident abroad and transfer passengers. The investment office counted 21,935 tourist accommodation establishments with more than 1,019,000 rooms in August 2025. The share of tourism in output is given as about 8% in the Wikipedia article on Türkiye and as 10 to 15% in the article on its economy, and neither figure carries a year. Health tourism earned 1 billion dollars in 2019 from 662,087 patients, with around 60% of the income coming from plastic surgery.

Where Türkiye's energy bill comes from

Türkiye relies heavily on imported gas and oil, supplied mainly from Russia, West Asia and Central Asia, and has made energy security a stated priority. Production from the Sakarya gas field began in 2023, and when fully operational it is expected to supply about 30% of the gas the country needs. Pipelines crossing the country include Blue Stream, TurkStream and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan line; in 2008 there were 7,555 kilometres of gas pipeline and 3,636 kilometres of oil pipeline on Turkish territory. Akkuyu is the first nuclear power station, and the target for net zero emissions is 2053.

Energy prices feed straight into the inflation figures. The IMF names a rise in energy prices, alongside bad weather, as a shock that could prolong high inflation, and its board asked for energy subsidies to be phased out with care for vulnerable households. Fossil fuel subsidies ran at around 0.2% of GDP, including at least 14 billion dollars, 169 dollars a person, between January 2020 and September 2021, and in 2023 gas was subsidised more heavily than electricity. The Right to Clean Air Platform estimated that the absence of a legal limit on fine particulate pollution cost the economy 10% of GDP in 2024.

Why incomes differ between western and eastern provinces

Wealth is concentrated in the northwest and west, and the east and southeast have lower output and more unemployment. TurkStat's provincial figures for 2023 put unemployment at 4.8% in Sinop and at 23.3% in Hakkari, against 9.4% nationally. Several Anatolian cities that grew quickly in the first two decades of the century are known collectively as the Anatolian Tigers. Eurostat put Turkish output per head at purchasing power standards at 64% of the European Union average in 2018.

Unemployment figures themselves have been argued over. In 2021 trade unions pointed out that TurkStat's rate was falling while the registrations held by İŞKUR, the state employment agency, were rising. For 2025 the World Bank gives 8.5% and the IMF 8.3%.

Distribution is wide. The World Bank's Gini coefficient was 43.7 in 2023, and in 2021 the top fifth of earners received 47% of disposable income and the bottom fifth 6%. The share of people below the international line of 6.85 dollars a day at purchasing power parity fell from 20% in 2007 to 7.6% in 2021, and in 2023 13.9% were below the national at-risk-of-poverty line. Social security spending came to 12.4% of GDP in 2022 by OECD figures. Women take part in the labour force at a lower rate than the OECD average.

The earthquakes of 6 February 2023 fell on the south of the country. Around 280,000 buildings were severely damaged or destroyed, Hatay and Kahramanmaraş were the provinces hardest hit, and Britannica gives the cost of rebuilding as between 35 and 100 billion dollars. International aid pledges to Türkiye and Syria together passed 7.5 billion dollars by March 2023.